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At 9,800 yards, the German 12/50 had a fair to good chance of getting
through KGV turret armor, per jj. The shell/armor/range/bearing combination
combined to yield a die spread of 0 -116. The higher the die roll, the
greater the damage.
The RN BBs, unlike the RN BCs, had very little GT risk from shock or
minor penetrations of the turret/barbette armor. The above is reflected
in jj by replacing certain probability ranges in the mid-90s with just
large fires within the penetrated turret. Centurion, in fact, took just
such a hit in the opening minutes ---but no GT.
The KGV and Orion turret armor is rated by jj to require greater than
105 to yield any chance at all of GT from a turret hit. The shell, not
just splinters or fragments must get through the armor, because they are
BBs not BCs, for any GT risk. In general, that means ranges lower than
something like 10,500 yards for German 11/50 and 12,500 for the 12/50.
It takes a turret hit above 110 to put the RN BBs at GT risk from a turret
hit, that is, to put the risk above 1 %. The probability spread for Ajax
facing 12/50 fire from 9,800 yards put her at about a 5% risk from each
turret hit.
The GT roll on Ajax was 113. Kblammo!
The die roll on Conquerer may be harder for some to accept, but I'll
try to explain what happened. The jj model shifts the probability from
mostly hull and deck hits to mostly superstructure and upper works hits
as the range drops. Under 12,000 yards, there will not be many hits placed
in those first two bins. Those that do hit the hull at low range have
greatly enhanced chance of causing large flooding damage and even destroying
power and propulsion machinery. (In fact, two Konigs have taken such bad
flooding hits already. Historically, Invincible's hits on Lutzow were
in this category.) The few deck hits have chances of hitting a barbette.
Here, however, jj splits risk by design of target --- more in a moment.
For wing turret ships, hull hits also have a chance to hit a barbette,
putting the Helgolands and Nassaus at somewhat greater risks than otherwise.
On all center?line ships, barbette hits are lower threats, probability-wise,
if they are on the first barbette and even lower if on last barbette,
since less barbette is exposed above other compartments that could decap
or otherwise disturb an incoming shell.
Thus, jj postulates greater risk if the hit is on a midships or superfiring
turret. This is mainly due to the barbette being more "accessible" to direct hits. The GT hit on Conquerer was on the second turret. If it
had been on the first or last, there'd've been risk of turret loss, but
no GT (the die roll required would've been higher than possible). The
die roll spread for the actual hit at just under 11,500 yards was 0 -
107. To get the GT, the die had to be greater than 105 - so the risk was
just under 2% even after the hit was placed in the low probability bin.
The roll was 106.
To recap (excuse the pun!), the shell had to hit (fairly low probability)
had to be placed in the Deck bin (low probability) and then had to get
a 106 or 107 out of a spread of 0 - 107. It did.
The loss of Centurion was not a GT. I left the characters in doubt,
but it was a damage control failure that did her in.
In jj, a large fire near magazines, including secondary mags, begins
to accrue explosion risks if damage control efforts fail. There is zero
risk if the fire is fairly small, a tiny amount if the fire is moderate,
and a small amount if the fire is large. However, the risk is a continuous
one and only is mitigated if there are firefighters and damage control
teams actively fighting the blaze. Any speed above 6 knots adds some extra
risk and a little more above about 15 knots, and a little more above 24
knots. The PC version of jj had the increase as a smooth curve, but manually
I do it by those discrete speeds.
On Ajax, there was a risk spike for such an explosion earlier. The phone
going dead amid reports from the XO to the bridge on the progress of the
fire fighting was due to a shell that slaughtered almost all on one side
of the fire. Ajax survived that risk, in part, because initiative rolls
let others quickly resume damage control efforts.
In the jj, the above initiative check depends a lot on ship-wide casualties
(a simplification). That is, if the ship has taken a lot of casualties,
the crew is presumed to be spread thinner, as back up personnel take over
tasks of those lost. Also, there is a "shell shock" loss of
initiative if the ship has been pounded with huge loss of life.
Centurion lost her fight for life. The last observed hit on the barbette/turret
did hurt her, but was not the cause of death. She'd taken significant
casualties and the hits had included several in the area of the fire-causing
hit and in areas just aft. Far from coping with the flames, Centurion
was losing the fire fighting battle. The hit from Ostfriesland took out
most of the second DC team, after the first essentially disappeared to
a man from the hit earlier that itself caused new visible fires just aft
of the ones already out of control.
Since Konig was the LOB leader, that made the range greater to her than
to Centurion for the opportunistic shooters further back in the LOBs.
Second, though Konig took a lot of hits, casualties to the firefighters
has been low, so far. While they have not beaten the fire, the fire is
of much lower risk to the ship (in jj) with the teams on station to hose,
flood, etc any higher risk spaces that might be threatened.
As for relative GT risks, the Konigs have the thickest turret/barbette
armor in the battle. They also have no wing turrets. Since this battle
pre-dates the post-Jutland RN ordnance improvements, the RN die spreads
are lower. When, at the lowest range, Ajax was getting hit with a spread
of 0 - 116, Konig was getting hit with a spread of 0 - 106. After the
Jutland improvements, I think the Konig spread would be 0 - 115 for the
13.5" at this range (not sure, that's close, though) despite the
better armor.
The 15" would be higher still. Even at the Baron's Jutland, the
spread would be something like 0 - 120 for that ordnance at this range.
The QE is still mercifully beyond visibility.
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