| J[ellic]oe acted from one of jj's laborious "decision tables." He made a quick decision on Commodore Nott's hasty and somewhat lucky
sighting report. J had increasing odds of (1) getting the info and (2)
acting on it. He did both at his first real chance. His odds were decent,
between 30% and 40%. His odds 6 minutes later (failing chance #1) would
have been greater, 60% and 75%. By 12 minutes later (failing chances #1
and #2), the odds would have been above 80% with virtually 100% 18 minutes
later. The spread of the numbers is due to the formation die rolls for
visibility (above or below base visibility).
As it was, Nott got the sighting 6 minutes earlier than mainstream. For
more background on Nott, his trail CL was deliberately in position to
note Derfflinger beginning the turn to port, as should have been the case.
Nott swung very wide to avoid being sucked into gun range. The baron himself
swung wide to let his screen get set and to time his intersection with
the HSF van and the GF. The very width of both turns was the source of
Nott's fortunate position to see the HSF main body.
Note: if the baron had taken the riskier turn to starboard, Nott wouldn't
have been in a position to see the HSF main body. How that would have
affected the battle is not clear, but J[ellic]oe certainly (at a minimum)
would have turned later. One thing, however, was that the RN CL squadron
would have emerged within torpedo range and likely before the baron's
screen was there!
Also, J is turning per historical --- ~ Equal Speed Charlie London.
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