Letterstime: Ein Geleitzug

Up until an hour ago Leftenant Felix Martin had expected they would be briefing only the captain. The captain made him nervous-sometimes very nervous, but not about his intermittent stammer. But then the message arrived that Vice Admiral Henry Oliver, the chief of the naval war staff, was coming as well. That news terrified Felix, but it ruffled the other four analysts only a little. Evidently they had all met Vice Admiral Oliver before. They apparently welcomed the opportunity to show off their smarts.

A finger pointed. "William, there's a face I don't recognize. Leftenant, what is your name?"

The inevitable moment of doom had arrived! Felix wished he could turn into a submarine and conceal himself in the cloak of the ink dark sea. He bolted erect.

"Leftenant, Fe-felix Martin, sir." His own tongue betraying him! Oh the horror, the shame!

The admiral stared at him. Clearly it must be a look of disgust. Captain Hall blinked. And blinked some more. His mouth twitched. Felix detected a barely audible snicker, probably Nigel who had a real talent for snickering.

"And how long have you been with the NID, Leftenant Martin?"

"Two-nearly two months, admiral"

Captain Hall piped in, "During the Dardanelles campaign I decided another analyst was needed. Charles' malaria had been flaring up then."

Admiral Oliver grinned just slightly. "Glad to have you aboard, Leftenant. Will expect nothing less than the very best from you. You can sit down now." He paused a moment taking a deep breath, then addressed the entire group, "Gentlemen, Captain Hall and myself will have the honor and privilege the briefing of his lordship Carson and a few other MP's late this evening on the significance of the German foray off the American coast. Just what the deuce are the bloody Huns up to? That's what they are going to ask us and we damn well better have some bloody good answers! "

Felix squirmed in his seat. But he noticed that Nigel appeared to squirm a wee bit as well. Maybe the others were as relaxed as they pretended to be, either. They had been going all over and over the latest information they had all morning long.

Captain Hall batted a great many eyelashes. He turned to the most senior of the analysts, Lt. Cmdr Ian Balton. "Ian, can you start by summarizing the topics where you and your colleagues are in agreement. You can remain seated. We are going to be here for some time"

Ian seemed perfectly prepared for this question. "Admiral. Captain. The four of us, correction I mean all the five of us, are in basic agreement concerning the following points. First, we do not see the Germans attempting to establish a beachhead in England in the immediate future-"

"--immediate future meaning just what?" interrupted the admiral.

"I would define that as at least the next four weeks, admiral"

"Do you rule out a raid as well? I mean a raiding party of infantry. Kitchener keeps telling the Cabinet that he expects just such a raid soon. Can never pin down just what he means by soon though."

Ian nodded knowingly-- the relationship between Kitchener and the navy had deteriorated a great deal during Gallipoli "We think such a raid is unlikely as well, but it is admittedly more of a possibility than an invasion. They have sufficient transport capacity on ready notice to attempt a raid any time they want. But we don't see the value of such a raid except possibly as a lure to draw the Grand Fleet into a trap"

The admiral grimaced at that notion. Commander Balton hesitated expecting a remark or a question. When none was forthcoming he continued, "Next point of agreement is the Imperator. We think she serves multiple purposes. The more obvious is as a public relations ploy with the American public. But we also suspect it ferried some German agents to America. Intelligence gathering, probably some sabotage in Canada, collaboration with the Clan na Gael maybe even the Ghadar Party, intrigue with Jahnke in Mexico…"

Hall muttered something to Oliver at this point about a recently intercepted message. The admiral waved his fingers signaling only a mild interest then addressed Commander Balton, "That's all well and good, Ian. But I gather you and your associates don't see eye to eye about the ultimate mission of this German expedition, now do you?"

"Unfortunately we do not admiral. My position is simple and direct. It is that Germany still thinks as a land power. Sir, are you aware of the intelligence we received just yesterday morning about a major German assault in France planned to start before the 25th?"

Oliver turned to Hall, "Is this that report from STEAMROLLER? The one that had no specifics about where the attack would take place except that it was not going to be in the BEF sector?"

Hall nodded. "Yes, that's the one. Nothing more has come in. As far as we can tell it's all quiet on the Western Front."

Ian continued," As I was saying, admiral. The Germans have a major offensive underway in Poland and very shortly in France as well. Falkenhayn clearly wants to win the war on the ground before our New Army divisions become a factor. It's no secret to him that the French, the Russians and even we ourselves are woefully short on artillery shells. The only place that they can be purchased in appreciable quantity is the United States. So their navy is serving their army. I strongly suspect this effort involves still more ships than we currently know about. For instance there is the Kronprinz Wilhelm, which they had been using as a raider for a while. We have extremely good intelligence she made it back to Germany. But we've lost track of her of late. I think it highly likely she's back in the Atlantic right now"

"Are you saying that the Admiralstab think they can completely shut off the flow of American munitions to Britain, France and Russia?"

"No. Not completely, admiral. but the Admiralstab, thinks they can greatly reduce the transport for a while-a while being the next two extremely critical months. It is not just the seizure of ships. It is the intimidation and the uncertainty. The fear he will instill in the unfortunate merchant captains. If we institute strongly escorted convoys, there is the many delays that organizing convoys entails."

Admiral Oliver scowled at the mention of convoys, "Too many politicians don't have the faintest inkling what's involved in setting up convoys. Bloody mess is what would be! Not that we couldn't do it we had to, mind you."

"Yes indeed, sir, yes indeed. I think that if the Germans have any success whatsoever in France, Joffre will strongly pressure Lord Kitchener to mount an offensive as soon as possible. Active defense will not be enough for our French allies, esp. with the Russians being hard pressed as well."

Oliver nodded, "Aye, there has been some talk of late about mounting something bigger than Neuve Chapelle in August. All very vague and preliminary, at least as far as they are telling us. And to your point, French is already whining that he won't have enough shells to pull it off. But tell me, Ian, how does the High Seas Fleet and that vainglorious bastard, Letters fit into all this?'

Ian was expecting this question, "The High Seas Fleet will seek battle with the Grand Fleet before the end of the month."

Oliver turned sternly to Hall, "You know something that I don't, captain?"

Hall's rosy complexion got a little rosier. He shook his head with a twitch, "No admiral. Ian's conclusion is based solely on conjecture and the recent airship sortie." Admiral and captain turned very serious gazes back upon Lt. Cmdr Balton, who to Lt. Martin's amusement appeared anxious for the first time.

"It's very simple, sir. The Germans mean to keep the Royal Navy pinned down. If Letters should, God forbid, win another victory then they feel any effort to counter their raiding force will be seriously weakened. In any event my reading of the situation is that no matter what the outcome in the North Sea, the senior officers of this American expedition have been given extremely aggressive orders. They are to maximize impact and accept all necessary losses. The Admiralstab regards these ships as expendable. Those poor fellows do not expect to see Germany again."

On this somber note Captain Hall interrupted, "Thank you, Ian. I want some opinions from the others now. Who agrees with Ian's explanation of German strategy. Nigel, Charles?"

"Nay, sir. I most strongly disagree-" started Nigel.

"-but I do agree, Captain Hall," interrupted Lt. Charles Dunford, "that is with his overall appraisal of German strategy-that is provided, of course, that the report from STEAMROLLER proves out. But as the expression goes 'The devil is in the details'. That's where Commander Balton and I differ."

"Go on, Charles"

"Well, Captain, I agree that Falkenhayn and the Army still lord it over the German Navy. I also concur with the idea that Falkenhayn wants to attain a decisive advantage on both fronts. That he needs to win now if he's going to win at all. Not a total victory mind you, our intelligence indicates he's given up on that. But he thinks he can get out of the war with a favorable negotiated settlement if he prevails in Poland and produces a significant gain in France. And I agree that artillery shells have become more important in this war than anyone had anticipated. And that the Yanks have become pretty darn good at manufacturing the infernal things. And that -"

"-we got that big picture when Ian painted it. Right now the admiral and I are more interested in where you two disagree."

"Well, I guess, captain-- what I mean to say is that I see the Germans having well, uh, a more complicated strategy. My guess is that initially the Admiralstab's orders are to be cautious not bold. They intend to lure forces away from the Grand Fleet. They might even pretend to move on to Pernambucco or Veracruz. I think the Germans esp. hope that the Queen Elizabeth and Warspite go away, far away. Then Letters will sortie and seek out the weakened Grand Fleet. My best guess on this, meaning the North Sea sortie that is, is early July. Or maybe mid-July. If the High Seas Fleet then wins another victory our foe expects most of the dispatched ships to be recalled to England. It is only then that they will pounce on the arms ships from America. Instead of Ian's critical two months I see the Germans hoping for four. maybe five, months of effective interruption of this most vital sea lane. They may even have hopes of getting some prizes home-- the Germans could use some shells as well"
"There has been mention of a possible return to action by the Kronprinz Wilhelm. I am not sure she is already in the Atlantic. Just as likely she is readying to breakout. But I would like to extend that line of reasoning. Which of the interned ships departed with Strassburg and Imperator? Why it was the Kaiser Wilhelm II. It's far from being the biggest of the German liners but it is very fast. My suspicion is that the Germans will try to get her back to Germany and quickly turn her into another high speed AMC. This goes hand in hand with another bit of information that has come our way lately-namely that the Germans have three shifts working to complete the Bismarck. It's not that they have a huge excess of shipyard workers with nothing else to do, now is it? But the conversion of the Kaiser Wilhelm and the commissioning of the Bismarck as an AMC will take some time. Which is why I see the Admiralstab looking beyond a mere two months."

Admiral Oliver rubbed his chin, "Good point there about the liners, Charles. I myself have wondered long and hard why they didn't pick either the huge Vaterland or that treasure ship, Kronprinzessin Cecile to liberate. In fact if they are looking for troopships might they not try to spring the whole lot? Anything new from either Guy or Sir Courtney about Vaterland?"

"Yes and no. The usual suspects come and go as they've been doing since August. Nothing extraordinary. So far that is,' answered Hall.

"Hmm. Tell them to concentrate as much as possible on the Vaterland. As far as Bismarck put it on the list of things we'd like STEAMROLLER to pursue. And let's see if we can locate the Kronprinz Wilhelm again. Well, Nigel, you always something interesting to say. Fire away, lad."

Lt. Cmdr Nigel Tufnel III, who had an uncle in the House of Lords and made sure everyone knew it, nodded dramatically to the admiral and with a grand sweep of his left arm spoke in a tone both obsequious and histrionic, "My deepest thanks for your precious attention, Admiral Oliver. I will not waste your time nor mine, for while I do not wish to belittle my colleagues, these are dark days for our illustrious Empire, and it is only by coming to the clearest understanding of our dreadful situation and the insidious machinations of our foe---"

"-more matter, with less art, Nigel"

Felix softly snickered. So did Charles. Ian was one of those who snicker without making a noise and did so now. But Captain Hall was easily excited and nobody wished to set him off.

Nigel exhaled then raised his hands, "As you wish, Admiral. Well to be blunt it is painfully obvious to me that Germany has utterly changed its attitude towards naval power. Tirpitz laid the roots and now the tree has blossomed in the remarkable Baron Letters. To think that our files of last Christmas portrayed him as a prime example of German nepotism, occupying an obvious sinecure! This elaborate charade off the coast of New York is pure diversion. Letters seeks to draw off our strength away for his next anticipated triumph. Once we dispatch ships away from our most critical area whether to hunt or escort, the battle cruisers will slither back to the North Sea by devious routes. The Imperator and Kaiser Wilhelm II will feint in the direction of the North Sea. They're just another form of diversion. As far as the Kronprinz Wilhelm, I would point out that we have absolutely no indication of a breakout. She could be refitting or maybe we just lost track of her in the complicated German pier shuffle of the last fortnight"
"So while I sharply disagree as to why Letters will sortie I find myself somewhat in agreement with Charles as to when, namely the first half of July. Letters expects in his hubris to deliver another crushing defeat and this alone will compel His Majesty to sue for peace. He cares not a fig about the pestilent trenches in France and Poland! We all know well the rumors of ill feeling between Falkenhayn and Letters. It is simply daft to see this American expedition as a small and desperate measure of assistance to the German generals"

Nigel as usual was annoying everyone, even the devoutly religious Percy who tried mightily to like the pompous bugger as an act of charity.

"What if Letters wins another victory, but it's less than overwhelming and it fails to knock us to our knees before the bloody Kaiser? Then what?"

"Excellent question, admiral. I expect the Baron to keep coming at us until we either defeat him or sue for peace. It's beyond tactics and strategy with him. It's in his blood."

"And if the Grand Fleet refuses battle?" This question was Captain Hall's.

"Another splendid question! Sir, if there is no other way to force a battle he'll land six divisions in Suffolk. But you must understand that invasion for him won't be the primary objective. It's sinking our precious warships that drives him."

"We want to reassure the MP's tonight, Nigel, not scare them out of their blessed wits! Yes, yes, Ian we will let you defend your position. You can tell us once again how Nigel has no understanding whatsoever of the ground war. But first let's see if Percy can indulge us with his take on all this."

Lt. Percival Huntington spoke gently and deliberately peering over his massive spectacles. "As you wish, admiral. My position is that Commander Tufnel is basically correct that the German Navy is not going to throw away ships for Falkenhayn's glory. They are indeed thinking like admirals not like generals. But cruiser warfare is a concept they are well familiar with. Has everyone forgotten how enthralled the Germans were when Graf Spee was prowling the world? And has everyone forgotten how reluctant the Kaiser has been towards losing major warships? This current batch of raiders will tarry but a while in American waters. Their orders are not those of a suicide mission. But I do not see a return to Germany either. I too, see a challenging sortie by Letters but I believe he is much more restrained than we have been assuming. He is restrained by the damage to his ships, by the losses to his crews, by the rate at which shipyards can repair damage, and yes he is restrained even by the Admiralstab who despite his victories still sees him as reckless and impetuous. So my best guess for when the High Seas Fleet seeks battle is August. Meanwhile the Atlantic raiders will split up and attack weakly guarded trade routes. It is an additional form of pressure. For instance, our great nation imports a large amount of food from Argentina. Alas, I fear that route is high on their list of possible opportunities."

"Do you mean the Germans would try to force our capitulation though starvation?" thundered Admiral Oliver, "how utterly perfidious!"

"We should pray that the Germans do not become so ungodly, sir A Christian nation would ne'er do such a ghastly thing."

Throughout this Felix was astounded that the other four analysts could sound so certain in their arguments. He was reminded of the story-was it Chinese?-of the blind men and an elephant. He hoped that maybe the Captain would be content to let Ian and Nigel argue but…

"And now how about a word from our new fellow. Well Felix, what's your take on all this?"

Another moment of doom had arrived. "Yes, admiral, of, of course. I must apologize, sir, that I am more than a little con-confused by all this. About the ocean liners, I'm not convinced that AMC's is what's going on there. And the same goes for the ba-battle cruisers,. I keep thinking there must be something else but can't for the life of me fi-figure out what it is. This is because everything I've heard so far seems not to be enough to risk what have become unique strategic assets that the Germans must be smart enough to re-realize they are…"

Felix's words evoked a torrent of memories in Captain Hall. He was suddenly forced to recall what it was like to command the Queen Mary. He remembered the sense of power and responsibility he had felt then and how very different in quality it was from the power he now exercised. He remembered the wondrous view from the bridge when the great ship was steaming at full speed. This made him feel very sad, a deep profound sadness that chilled his soul. Enough! He forced himself to think.

The arguments went on and on for well over an hour.

by TomB